My new media manifesto: "Meeting the Second Wave"

I've been working on an important essay over the past three months, in between work on my thesis. The essay does not directly address my thesis topic, but it does reference many of the issues I have talked about on my Harvard Extended and I, Lamont blogs: 3D avatars, user-created video, autotagging, and additional issues related to networked technology, mass media, and society.

Others have talked about the impact of the Internet on traditional media companies, but this essay is not looking at recent developments as much as it is examining the future of news and entertainment media, as demographic trends and sophisticated technologies impact media creation and consumption patterns over the next 15 years.

The essay is called "Meeting the Second Wave: How Technology, Demographics, and Usage Trends Will Drive the Next Generation of Media Evolution," and it's long -- you'll need at least 15 minutes to read and absorb all that I have to say. But if you work in the media industry, or are interested in how technology is impacting mass media, I think it's a worthwhile read. I'd be very interested in getting feedback; feel free to leave comments below or email me directly.

Update:

There's already been some interest in this essay; the first version was reprinted by Raja and now MediaGrid.org has kindly agreed to host a version with graphics. If you're interested in reading the text-only, printer-friendly version that I originally posted, it's on my Harvard website and will remain there until I graduate.

Second Update

Trey Perry has also been thinking about what the future holds for Internet development. He's written a blog post, The Internet in 2017, which discusses practical 'Net technologies ranging from GPS to personal storage.

Shades of the 1990's Taiex in the Chinese stock correction of 2007

At the Computerworld newsroom this afternoon, we all followed the news coming out of Wall Street. The tumble in the Chinese markets led to a 400+ drop in the Dow. Our focus was on U.S. technology stocks and the impact of computer trading, but I was thinking back to major drops in the Taiwan stock exchange in the 1990s, when I lived and worked in Taipei.

Then, a lot of ordinary people had big investments in the Taiex, and there wasn't much sophistication about what they were buying or selling. Few retail investors paid attention to fundamentals, or invested in less risky investments like mutual funds. To millions of people, investing in securities was all about taking a gamble on stocks that TV gurus and friends recommended. People listened to these strategies, rumors, and supposed breakouts, and pumped more money in the runup. More often than not, they got seriously burned when the inevitable corrections took place. I know two people who played the market like it was a casino and lost lots of New Taiwan Dollars, especially after the Asian financial crisis of 1997, and a string of fradulent transactions carried out by executives at Taiwanese banks and investment companies led to panic in Taiwan's financial sector.

So earlier this year, when I heard about some of the risky investing behavior taking place among mainland Chinese investors, it reminded me of some of the irresponsible investing activities taking place in Taiwan ten years earlier. Chinese people love to gamble. It's a part of Chinese society. When this tendency carries over to investments, local real estate and stock markets can rise to spectacular heights -- and fall hard when the herd heads for the exits. We've seen it happen in Taiwan and Hong Kong in the 1990s and early part of this decade, and now we see it happening in China.

And, if Taiwan and Hong Kong are any guide, what we saw today in Shenzen and Shanghai is the start of a long-term cycle of heady rises and sharp corrections in mainland Chinese stock markets. The government in Beijing is making noises about reining in risky investment behavior, but I'm not convinced such measures will solve the problem. While limited controls -- such as those instituted by Taiwan in the 1990s, to halt trading in a stock if it moved 7% in either direction during the day -- may help limit the pain of panicked selloffs, they can't stop gamblers from entering the stock market casino.

Related Harvard Extended posts:

• The myth of the China market becoming reality?


• Blood money in Darfur: Harvard divests, Fidelity invests (involves two Chinese companies, Sinopec and PetroChina)


• Fidelity funds that invest in the Sudan genocide


• My new media manifesto

Chinese blogs: An organized translation effort

One of my favorite sources for current media developments in China is Roland Soong, who runs the EastSouthWestNorth blog (東南西北) from Hong Kong. He has been directly responsible for alerting me to interesting or unusual incidents, such as the Freezing Point fiasco, and what I believe to be the first-ever spontaneous mass political demonstration in a virtual world. The reasons Roland has been such a good source: his "news junky" personality, his sensitivity to differences between Western and Chinese media practices, and his bilingual abilities.

Now Roland and a few other bloggers are participating in a much more organized effort to translate interesting or important conversations taking place in the Chinese-language Internet. Former Berkman fellow Rebecca MacKinnon explains:

Roland has become one of the most famous Chinese-English "bridge bloggers," bringing articles, blog posts, conversations, and debates from the Chinese-language Internet to the attention of the English-speaking world.  But there are many other people doing this on their own blogs. They include John, LfC, the good folks at Danwei, Interlocals, the China Media Project, the team at China Digital Times and many many more bilingual bloggers scattered around Greater China and across the globe.

The problem, as John points out, is that so far there has been little co-ordination about who is working on what, and people are often worried about duplication (i.e., whether Roland will beat them to the punch after they spend hours working on something).

The solution: Something Roland calls "Open Source Translation Blogging." Participants have set up a wiki, where you can sign up (if you can read Chinese and are willing to help identify and translate Chinese Web discussions) or find out about the translations projects that are being worked on. It's too early to tell if the translation project will be a success, but there really is a need for such an effort, and this one is really leveraging the power of the Internet -- and blogs -- in a constructive way.

Fidelity funds that invest in the Sudan genocide

A few weeks ago, I described how Fidelity Investments, the Boston mutual funds giant and one of the preferred investment companies for Harvard employees, has hundreds of millions of dollars invested in two companies that are helping support the genocide in Sudan: Sinopec (中國石油化工總公司) and Petrochina (中國石油天然氣股份有限公司).

I also described my fruitless attempts to ascertain which Fidelity funds that I personally own (thanks in large part to my rollover IRA through Fidelity, which is based on my former employment at Harvard) have holdings in either of the Chinese companies. The day after writing that blog entry, I logged onto Fidelity.com and wrote a simple message:

Could you please help me identify which one of the Fidelity funds that I own currently have any investments in Sinopec and PetroChina? I tried searching for this information on your website and in the prospectii, but it is very difficult to find or confirm. All I need to know are those funds which are currently invested in these two companies. Thank you, Ian Lamont

I sent the message on February 6. Despite an email confirmation from Fidelity which promised a reply within 48 hours, I never got an answer. I sent a follow-up request on February 16, but still no reply. Finally, today I used the "instant message a rep" feature on Fidelity.com to see what was going on.

The polite answer: My earlier questions had been "escalated" to higher-up executives. One of the reps said quite a few Fidelity customers have asked about these two companies. Judging by the lack of a response, Fidelity still doesn't know how to respond.

There's more: Fidelity customer service reps can't (or won't) tell investors which Fidelity funds are currently invested in Sinopec and PetroChina. It seems like a simple request, but there is no app in their arsenal which will quickly bring up a list of the companies that a particular Fidelity fund owns (No wonder some people get upset with Fidelity!). The best the reps could do was direct me to the most recent annual reports on Fidelity.com, which in a few cases were more than four months old. But at least I could build a list of *some* of the funds that *had* Sinopec/Petrochina holdings, as of Dec. 31 or Oct. 31, 2006:

Fidelity Diversified International Fund
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co. Ltd. sponsored ADR
42,000 shares
$1,794,660

Fidelity China Region
PetroChina
14,100,000 shares
$15,564,990

Fidelity Pacific Basin
PetroChina
8,712,000 shares
$9,617,177

Fidelity Southeast Asia
PetroChina Co. Ltd. (H Shares)
25,800,000 shares
$28,480,620

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co. Ltd. (H Shares)
6,200,000 shares
$2,630,767

Upon review of my own limited holdings, I sold my entire stake in Fidelity's Diversified International Fund. This fund, managed by Portfolio Manager William Bower, is the only fund from the above list that I owned. The amount I had invested in the mutual fund was small, and the fund's holdings in Sinopec are (or were) relatively small, but the idea that my retirement savings are contributing to one of the worst humanitarian disasters of the decade is utterly repulsive. I urge anyone who owns shares in Fidelity Diversified International Fund, or the other funds named above, to dump their shares and contact Fidelity to let them know how you feel.

Additionally, I encourage anyone who is a member of the Harvard community to contact the University administration and petition it to force Fidelity -- with whom it has granted a profitable contract to be one of the sole suppliers of 403(b) services to Harvard employees -- to drop these funds from the roster of investment options for employees.

If Fidelity and Harvard are unwilling to take a stand, the next step is obvious: Harvard should end its relationship with Fidelity. And, for that matter, any company which profits from genocide.

Best guitar solos (for editing)

As I was working on my thesis tonight (draft 2, chapter 1) I listened to some great guitar-heavy rock and roll on iTunes.

This was a change for me. Often when I'm writing for class or working on my thesis, I prefer listening to music which doesn't have hooks, or other elements that distract. My playlist tends to favor instrumental, long-form music, such as Satie, Ravel, Segovia, and Tool.

But tonight I was in edit mode, not writing mode. I was revising the first draft of my thesis and incorporating the suggestions of my thesis director. It was more relaxing work, as most of the heavy lifting (research, and writing from scratch) had already been completed. I therefore had some leeway in my music choices, and put on some great old and (relatively) new rock, including the following songs which I think have the best guitar solos in the Western rock pantheon:

• Stone Temple Pilots - Coma (Shangri La Dee Da)


• Bob Mould - Wishing Well (Workbook)


• Dukes of Stratosphear - Shiny Cage (Chips from the Chocolate Fireball)


• Husker Du - I Will Never Forget You (Zen Arcade)


• Weezer - Take Control (Maladroit)


• The Who - Young Man Blues (Live At Leeds)


• ZZ Top - Jesus Just Left Chicago (Tres Hombres)

Ideally, this should be a top ten list, but I didn't have time to go through all of the songs in my iTunes collection.

Anyone else have recommendations, to fill out the list?

Trouble at 02138?

The new Harvard alumni magazine 02138 is experiencing some major problems, judging by the write-up in the Weekly Dig. Senior editors have left, and the editorial office is about to move to New York. And then there's the leaked internal memo, which suggests that 02138's "church/state" wall has a hole in it big enough to let a Gucci handbag slip through:

“Make as many photo shoots as possible fashion shoots. Let subjects know that readers will be very interested in their fashion, jewelry, accessory choices or, preferably, dress them. Whether or not we dress them, clothes should be credited. Next list [of influential Harvardians?—(Weekly Dig) Ed.] should be shot this way.”

I don't want to get too down on this magazine; they have some useful features and they are trying to launch a niche publication in a dying print advertising market. But product placement? That's one thing we don't have to worry about in Harvard Magazine.

What's the value of a University of Phoenix degree?

What's the value of a degree from the University of Phoenix?

(More than 100 comments added; go here to read them and be sure to read the companion blog post and comments about Saturday Night Live's "University of Westfield" ad) There's a very serious critique of the University of Phoenix in today's New York Times. This for-profit, continuing-education institution -- which offers in-class programs as well as online degrees -- has been providing substandard education, according to many students quoted in the article.

The most telling statement, however, comes from the head of the accreditation agency responsible for business degrees:

Although Phoenix is regionally accredited, it lacks approval from the most prestigious accrediting agency for business schools, the Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business.

John J. Fernandes, the association’s president, said the university had never applied. “They’re smart enough to understand their chances of approval would be low,” Mr. Fernandes said. “They have a lot of come-and-go faculty. We like institutions where the faculty is stable and can ensure that students are being educated by somebody who knows what they’re doing.”

In many ways, it's a typical story -- a large corporation putting financial goals ahead of product quality and the needs of its customers. But in this case, the nature of the products (education and degrees) and the customers (students) makes this story especially sad. This isn't about deceptive promotions for cellphone service or poorly made widgets. This is about people who are seeking knowledge or a boost for their career. It sounds like a lot of students have wasted time, money and hope on University of Phoenix programs. For those who have already graduated, reports like this devalue the University of Phoenix, and its degrees.

I'd be curious to hear from people who have taken online or in-class lessons from the University of Phoenix, or those who actually have UoP degrees and can give a University of Phoenix review. What do you think of this article? Can the trust of students and the University of Phoenix's reputation be rebuilt?

Sample comment about the University of Phoenix

Someone posted the following comment in May, 2017: In the 10 years since this post has been published, I have seen more and more comments like this one:

I also have an accounting degree from UOP. I could not get a job in accounting if I agreed to work for free. It was a huge mistake and waste of time. I am 42 years old and still going to school but I definitely learned a big life lesson. I am skeptical of any online education not because it is poor education but it is perceived by employers to be worthless. Since they are the ones that decide if you get a opportunity or not, it is worthless.If your looking for personal enrichment or don't have anything better to do than spending hours studying it is a waste of time. I am not really upset about the money or lack of job opportunities but I am upset that I will never get back those hundreds of hours that I could have been spending with my husband and children. I hope anyone that is currently attended will reconsider their decision. There are other options, UOP is a running joke. I am embarrassed to tell people that I have a degree from this institution.

In 2007, employers may not have heard of UoP, or assumed it was a non-profit or public college based on the name. Not anymore. Employers know what University of Phoenix represents, and to many the degrees are suspect, even if the students put a lot of work into getting them.

Updates to What's the value of a University of Phoenix degree?

First update: This post, and another post about Saturday Night Live's "University of Westfield" ad generated a lot of traffic and responses. However, I am disturbed by the appearance of what I believe to be a comment from an employee of the University of Phoenix's parent company, either ridiculing its student customers or  making a strange attempt at astroturfing. See this comment and my follow-up and judge for yourself. Also, if you want to join the discussion here or on that page, that's fine, but I will call out any comment that comes from an official UOP corporate source, yet claims to be an ordinary customer or alumnus.

Second update: Frontline (a weekly documentary program on PBS) has a fascinating profile of for-profit education called College, Inc. It includes a lengthy examination of the University of Phoenix and its parent company, Apollo Group. You can read my review of the Frontline program and watch the video here.

Third update: On my blog entry about the SNL parody of the University of Phoenix, someone has posted a blistering review of the University of Phoenix MBA program. The author is someone who says he recently completed his UOP MBA.

Fourth update: I have taken an online math class for credit, and have this to say about the online education experience:

• My online math class: Convenience gets an 'A,' but at what cost?

Even though it's not about the UOP online classes, it gives some insights into what the online study experience is like.

Fifth update: Another response to my separate blog post about the SNL University of Phoenix parody ("The University of Westfield") has drawn a critical comment that describes the UOP online experience and UOP grading. 

Sixth update: Another comment, from someone in the AA/IT program: "My experience started rocky during the first 4 classes and improved substantially as the classes became more challenging." The reasons for the rocky start? "The initial quality of students appeared to be inadequate to maintain participation and attendance. I also had to drop one class within the first week due to concerns over the quality of education from the instructor. "

Seventh update: Another apparent attempt at astroturfing by the University of Phoenix, this time on a new post about the Frontline documentary about for-profit and online colleges who exploit veterans to get at their GI Bill benefits.

See also:

• Saturday Night Live's "University of Westfield" ad: The reputation of online degrees takes another hit

(Update: Since writing this post, I have launched a company which is dedicated to helping people understand complicated technologies and concepts. Besides creating online posts which address questions such as What Is Dropbox and What Is Google Drive, I have also published a series of guides under the In 30 Minutes brand.)

Thoughts on Drew Gilpin Faust, Harvard's next president

I've been following some of the coverage of Harvard's presidential search, and was interested to see a Boston Globe article -- I believe it was last weekend -- that said FAS historian and Radcliffe Institute chief Drew Gilpin Faust was a front-runner.

Now the Crimson reports Faust has been indeed been picked to lead the University, and pending approval of the Overseers, she will be named Harvard's next president, and Harvard's first female president.

I see some pros and cons in this selection. The Boston Globe article mentioned the perception among some members of the Harvard community that Faust was picked because she is so different from Larry Summers -- she is a woman, she is a careful concensus-builder, and she is FAS faculty-friendly.

I don't know if Faust is a concensus-builder, but I must say that the Summers episode was a sharp reminder that maintaining good relations with the FAS faculty is very important to leading the University.

The FAS faculty issue aside, I have two major concerns with the appointment. The first relates to her leadership experience. Harvard needs a visionary and a strong leader. Leading Radcliffe through a difficult transformation from a former women's college to a modern research institute has certainly been challenging, but the Radcliffe Institute is small -- just a few hundred employees, faculty and fellows -- and focussed on a handful of disciplines that touch women's studies.

The other concern I have relates to her academic background. At this stage in Harvard's expansion, and for that matter, this stage in human history, the University really needs leadership that is strong in the sciences and has a strong international outlook. As a history major and someone who has read her work (she wrote an excellent biography, James Henry Hammond and the Old South, that was assigned reading for one of my first graduate school classes, back in 2003) I totally respect her academic credentials, but she does not have significant research experience in the sciences or modern global studies, beyond overseeing some activities and initiatives that may have taken place at the Radcliffe Institute.

On the other hand, Faust will almost certainly have in her core leadership group people who have solid experience developing scientific and international programs. She was able to do this at the Radcliffe Institute, choosing for her academic leadership team Barbara Grosz, dean of science at the Radcliffe Institute and Higgins Professor of Natural Sciences in the FAS; and Jennifer Leaning, senior advisor in international and policy studies at the Radcliffe Institute, and professor of international health in the Harvard School of Public Health, and assistant professor of medicine in the Harvard Medical School.

Additionally, Faust's Radcliffe Institute background has no doubt given her an understanding of the challenges that smaller tubs and programs face in the larger University community. The Extension School was sometimes overlooked under President Summers (which may have been a good thing; Dean Shinagel was one of the few deans who kept his job after Summers took office).

That's my take. What do other people think of this appointment?

MetaFilter discussion about the Extension School

The MetaFilter online community started a thread about the Extension School ("Masters in IT at the Harvard Extension School: Too good to be true?"). Some interesting opinions and observations were made regarding the perception of the Extension School and HES students, and I decided to respond to the thread as well.

You can too; unfortunately it requires a $5 paypal "donation" to MetaFilter in order to complete your registration. If you are an Extension School student and want to take part but don't want to pony up the cash, let me know and I'll post a comment on your behalf (of course, identifying you as the poster).