The future of the Internet: Ray Kurzweil, Trey Perry, and the Pew report

A few weeks ago, I published my essay on the next 15 years of mass media evolution (see "Meeting the Second Wave: How Technology, Demographics, and Usage Trends Will Drive the Next Generation of Media Evolution," on my Harvard and I, Lamont blogs). Since then, I have been actively seeking out other futurist writings, and have found a few that need to be discussed here.

The first is Ray Kurzweil's book, The Singularity Is Near, which I started to read on my way out to Intel HQ last week. Kurzweil puts forward an intriguing and convincing vision of a future dominated by massive computing resources, biomedical advances, nanotechnology, and virtual reality. In less than 40 years, he believes processing and storage power, growing at an exponential rate, will lead to artificial intelligence and the ability of human brains to interface directly with computers. Nanobots will be able to help solve some of our most pressing environmental crises, and will even be able to cruise the human bloodstream and, through networked connections, generate virtual representations of their hosts. Kurzweil's vision is fascinating, although I have to say his rigorous examination of the evolution of current biomedical and computing technologies is clouded by his own personal interest in living longer -- he says he takes something like 250 supplements per day to ensure that he lives to see the age in which he can take advantage of these marvelous technological advances. Is logic driving his views, or personal hope for an extended biological lifespan and digital immortality?

On a shorter timeline, Trey Perry and the Pew American Internet & Life project have published visions of the Internet in 2017 and 2020, respectively. Trey predicts the development of personal Internet technologies over the next ten years, while the Pew report ("The Future of the Internet II") has gathered the opinions of various experts regarding the big picture of the Internet's influence upon society at the start of the '20s. I will quote a few key findings of the Pew report here:

On the growth of the network:

A majority of respondents agreed with a scenario which posited that a global, low-cost network will be thriving in 2020 and will be available to most people around the world at low cost. And they agreed that a tech-abetted “flattening” of the world will open up opportunities for success for many people who will compete globally.

Still, a vocal and sizeable minority of respondents say they are unsure that the policy climate will be favorable for such internet expansion. The center of the resistance, they say, will be in the businesses anxious to preserve their current advantages and in policy circles where control over information and communication is a central value.

On autonomous technology:

Most respondents said they think humans will remain in charge of technology between now and 2020. However some fear that technological progress will eventually create machines and processes that move beyond human control. Others said they fear that the leaders who exercise control of the technology might use this power inappropriately.

On the new Luddites:

Future Most respondents agreed that there will people who will remain unconnected to the network because of their economic circumstances and others who think a class of technology refuseniks will emerge by 2020. They will form their own cultural group that lives apart from “modern” society and some will commit acts of violence in protest to technology.

On virtual reality:

Many respondents agreed with the notion that those who are connected online will devote more time to sophisticated, compelling, networked, synthetic worlds by 2020. While this will foster productivity and connectedness and be an advantage to many, it will lead to addiction problems for some.

There are many, many additional issues that are discussed in the Pew report, including the future of privacy, nation-states, legal issues, the Semantic Web, standards, interoperability, language and translation, computing costs, coding, and economic factors. I encourage everyone interested in the next 10-15 years of Internet development to read the Pew center's full report.