Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Patterns of upheaval in modern Chinese history

I'm in the process of writing a precis for Robin Porter's (Ed.) Reporting the News from China (London: RIIA, 1992). One of the essays is by Simon Long, entitled “The winds that keep blowing: China and its foreign press corps since June 1989.” On page 107 he observes,

“In every decade since the communist victory in 1949, China has been shaken by an unforeseen political upheaval.”


As a student of modern Chinese history, I have long believed that a similar pattern has existed, but for far longer: Since the late Qing, China has experienced local or widespread upheavals caused by a variety of domestic and external factors. Starting in 1900, and up until 1989, China has experienced a major upheaval affecting multiple urban areas and/or provinces about every 10 to 25 years. In 1900 it was the Boxer Rebellion. In 1911, the Republican revolution. In 1930s, civil war and the Japanese invasion. In the late 1940s, the Communists coming to power. In 1958, the Great Leap Forward and its aftermath. In the mid-1960s, the Cultural Revolution. In 1989, student protests in Tiananmen and other major cities.

One could argue that this pattern of major upheavals stretches back even further: Taiping Rebellion, the Opium Wars and other major foreign incursions, etc.

Additionally, besides the major upheavals, more localized or limited upheavals have occurred across the country on a more frequent basis. Yuan Shikai's revolt in the teens, warlordism and associated battles in the teens and 20s, student movements in the late teens, massacres in southern cities in the 20s, student movements in the mid to late 1970s, 1986, and 1987, and now these rural revolts and riots we see mentioned in the New York Times and other press outlets every few months.

If this pattern holds, are we in store for another major upheaval? I sure hope not, but I fear that a convergence of social and political factors may contribute to just such a scenario. I think technology may play a role, as I outlined in an earlier post .

2 comments:

I Lamont said...

I disagree, at least with regards to developed countries. In the case of the United States specifically, demonstrations, social change, and economic depression are one thing; events or policy shifts that result in thousands or even millions of deaths are another. In this regard, China has experienced more than other nations, and more frequently.

Anonymous said...

Chinese leaders have become very savvy and intune with international politics. It's no longer about revolutionalising the world ideology but about economic progression. Instability is a big no no for China and this is obvious by their support of world bodies at a time when unilateralism seems to be the in thing. My 1 pee worth.