New Chinese Internet restrictions -- Yeah, right

Saw this in the New York Times this morning -- an article by Joseph Kahn about China drafting new regulations restricting news and commentary on the Internet. Here's the bit that applies to the big Chinese sites and search portals:

Major search engines and portals like Sina.com and Sohu.com, used by millions of Chinese each day, must stop posting their own commentary articles and instead make available only opinion pieces generated by government-controlled newspapers and news agencies, the regulations stipulate.

... And here's the section that applies to everyone else:

The rules also state that private individuals or groups must register as "news organizations" before they can operate e-mail distribution lists that spread news or commentary. Few individuals or private organizations are likely to be allowed to register as news organizations, meaning they can no longer legally distribute information by e-mail.

The Washington Post also has an item about this, from Reuters.

If you're wondering how China's propaganda and police overlords are going to restrict people from sending email "commentary", the answer is, they're not. Shutting down big listservs can be done, but no one can enforce millions of Chinese people from telling friends, colleagues, or family members what they think via non-listserv email, or expect them to register with the government as news organizations.

Here are my predictions: Expect to see a few big sites toe the official line while looking for legal or technical loopholes in the new regs, and many others to ignore the directives. Of course, the police and propogandists will find a few hapless and unconnected citizen commentators to arrest and make public examples of, but that won't stop people from using the 'Net to participate in uncensored discussions about real issues, any more than public anti-corruption drives have stopped cadres and bureaucrats from lining their own nests.

In summary, the Chinese 'Net locomotive is out of the station and barrelling down the tracks, with a hundred million people using it to entertain, inform, conduct business, and do lots of other things in new and unpredictable ways. The PRC authorities can try to put on the brakes, but there's no way they can stop this train, short of turning off all the Chinese Internet nodes, halting the sales of PCs, and destroying people's cellphones in some sort of misguided Cultural Revolution for the 'Net generation.

See my earlier commentary on Chinese 'Net controls here.

Thesis proposal started -- finally!

After four months of research and procrastination, I have finally begun my thesis proposal. Over the course of three hours, with frequent 'net surfing diversions, I was able to hammer out 382 words that will serve as the introduction to the proposal.

In it, I outline the problem -- what factors can explain China’s attitudes and intentions toward Vietnam over the last three decades -- and discuss why quantitative methodologies have rarely been brought to bear.

It's a good start, but I still have a long way to go. The format of the proposal calls for 18 or 20 double-spaced pages, which will require another 4000 words or so. I don't want to speculate as to how long it will take to complete a first draft. Writing is not hard for me, but I have discovered that other things get in the way of making progress, ranging from family obligations to mindless distractons. And of course, no matter how good I think my proposal is, Harvard's ALM research advisor for the social sciences may take a look at it and tell me to start again.

LA Times on Disney, Murdoch media problems in China

Follow-up to my Computerworld post about new regulations governing Western media operating in China. Don Lee of The LA Times today (via Yahoo news) notes the problems Disney and Rupert Murdoch have encountered in China expanding their respective media empires. The following paragraphs are particularly telling:

Some industry executives and analysts view the curbs against Western media as part of Chinese President Hu Jintao's broader campaign to head off perceived threats to his rule. Communist leaders have long seen the media as more of a propaganda tool than a commercial enterprise. In recent months, the central government has reined in journalists and cut off Internet forums at some major universities as the Internet has helped to foster criticism of party officials and policies.

The restrictions on foreign media coincide with a changing of the guard at the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television, where longtime provincial official Wang Taihua replaced media veteran Xu Guangchun as head of the regulatory body.

This suggests that guanxi and large business investments in China will only go so far when the central government's plans to maintain social (and political) stability are involved.

Shambaugh/Robinson precis finished -- finally!

After nearly six weeks, I finally got through all 600-odd pages of Thomas Robinson's and David Shambaugh's (eds.) Chinese Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice (Oxford University Press, 1994). Normally it wouldn't take me so long to read a book, but I was also writing a very detailed precis that totals 23 pages of 12 pt. Arial type -- all the while holding down a full-time job and helping my wife raise two little kids. Most of the reading and precis writing took place after 8 pm, when the kids were in bed.

Although I have read several books, articles, and dissertations that deal with specific issues or areas involving Chinese foreign policy (Sino-Viet relations, territorial disputes in the South China Sea, etc.) this is the first book that gets into international relations theory and its impact on Chinese foreign policy from the 1950s through the early 1990s. Naturally, superpower politics figures quite prominently, while other issues -- ranging from territorial disputes, large-scale internal migration, and of course the Internet -- are hardly mentioned at all.

Mass media and propaganda are also neglected, although the editors mention in the appendix the importance of the “Three Bibles” of translated sources used by researchers: Foreign Broadcast Information Service Daily Report-China, The Joint Publications Service China Report, and the BBC’s Summary of World Broadcasts:

“These three daily translations mediums are invaluable for tracking newspaper and journal publications, as well as monitored radio and television broadcasts, from the PRC. No serious student or researcher can live without them, although it should be noted that these services actually pick up and translate a small portion – albeit an important sample – of the total pronouncements from the Chinese media and publications on international relations and security affairs.” [page 606]

Some other interesting quotes (keeping in mind that all were written more than 10 years ago, when China was a very different place):

Steven Levine, on the impact of history on China's foreign policy:

“Chinese leaders tend to internalize a sense of historical resentment at the raw deal which history has given them. This resentment often translates into a claim of entitlement upon others. When other states behave toward China in accordance with their supposed obligations, everything is fine. But when these claims are not recognized, or are recognized only partially, additional layers of Chinese resentment may build up. This hypersensitivity is manifested with respect to symbolic and status issues no less than to substantive issues of resource allocations and power.” [p. 44]

Carol Lee Hamrin, on the tight control over foreign policy by a handful of party elders and central government departments:

“The process of foreign policy and national security information processing, deliberation, and decision making and the management of foreign relations has been highly centralized and compartmented from other functional areas for most of the post-1949 era. Control over foreign ties is highly important to regime sustenance.” [p. 80]

Harold Hinton, on China as a regional power:

“There is no realistic possibility that China will achieve a position of dominance in the region. Accordingly Beijing does not appear to count such a mythological condition among its serious foreign policy objectives.” [p. 349]

However, Hinton later says:

“… Beijing would probably like ideally to have East Asia, or more realistically SE Asia, as its exclusive sphere of influence, a modern equivalent of the traditional tributary system, which institutionalized to a degree China’s sense of superiority over its neighbors.” [p. 359]

Harry Harding, on the nature of PRC support for Third World insurgencies in past decades:

“China’s distance from its clients has also reflected its deep-rooted desire to avoid entangling international commitments to clients as well as to benefactors. China can be effusive in its rhetorical and symbolic support and generous with its economic and military assistance, but does not wish to assume binding obligations to provide continuing military aid to its clients, or even to consult with them in advance when considering changes in its own foreign policies.” [p. 391]

Wang Jisi on the Chinese perspective of international relations theory:

“In the Chinese context, a theory is not much different from a doctrine, an ideology, or a set of propositions serving as a guiding principle for action. ... Theories without immediate relevance to policy making or implementation are often refered to as empty and useless” [p. 483]

“Chinese theoretical notions are often connected with such metaphors as the Paper Tiger, the East Wind and West Wind, the Hundred Flowers, Walking on Two Legs, the Spiritual Atom Bomb, and so forth. In Chinese political and cultural tradition, simple generalization is much better respected that abstract sophistication.” [p. 491]

Chinese Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice and the many viewpoints contained within, provides much food for thought, as I begin my thesis proposal. The book is available in university libraries, as well as online.

WaPo profile of Liu Changle

The Washington Post's Philip Pan has a story this morning about Liu Changle, of Phoenix TV fame. Liu started out as a broadcaster for the state-run media in China, but is now one of the most influential media owners in China. According to the article, Liu has been able to parlay connections with the government and other businessmen (such as Rupert Murdoch) to establish (and protect) himself, and has creating news and entertainment programming that appeals to China's growing "elite" -- or anyone in the PRC with enough money to buy a satellite dish.

The news produced by Phoenix TV pushes the envelope -- for instance, it broadcast the news about Zhao Ziyang's death -- but never goes too far:

But there are limits as to how far Phoenix will go, and Liu encourages self-censorship among his staff. The station covered Taiwan's elections, but never lets anyone express support for the island's independence. It also refrains from critical coverage of party leaders and avoids interviews with dissidents who call for democratic reform.

"Once Liu told me, 'Why should we make Beijing angry? Let someone else do it,' " said Chen Helin, the director of Phoenix's news channel.

Phoenix also broadcasts fluffy shows on the economic triumphs of the provinces, and several of its pundits parrot the party's views with enthusiasm. The station aired one fawning interview with the health minister just days before he was fired for covering up the SARS epidemic. It also produced a show attacking the banned Falun Gong spiritual movement.

Read the entire article here.

The myth of the China market becoming reality?

I've long believed that Western companies have been far too hopeful about the potential of the China market, and the myth that untold riches await for those companies that are patient, shrewd, and connected.

The lure of hundreds of millions of potential customers has been a Siren call to generations of European and North American (and Australian) businessmen. Despite the wildly successful experiences of a handful of players, the majority of companies that have attempted to establish a beachhead in China have been frustrated by political unrest, cultural hostility or indifference, practical business hurdles, legal and government obstacles, forex complications, and a host of other problems.

A few years ago Ethan Gutman wrote Losing the New China: A Story of American Commerce, Desire, and Betrayal which, among other things, painted a picture of China branch offices of American companies and the American Chamber of Commerce deliberately promoting the myth, despite evidence that pointed to only limited profit potential.

I am starting to wonder, however, if the myth is starting to come true. I'm not just talking about U.S. investors who've made small fortunes on Baidu and other stock market darlings. I've seen reports in the Wall Street Journal and elsewhere that indicate a few large American companies' significant investments in China are starting to pay off, among them GM and Boeing. And it's not just because of cheap labor -- China really is starting to develop a middle class with middle class appetites. Then there's this report that a well-known venture capital firm named Sequoia has had a major change of heart over prospects in China.

But my skeptic's soul is warning me from getting to close to stories that suggest the myth is not a myth. Since the early 19th century, China has experienced regular and significant political and social upheavals that have ended the China dreams of many businesses. Additionally, while the Wall Street Journal, Amcham, and others like to highlight China success stories, we seldom hear about the multitudes of recent failures. There is no obligation for a Western company to admit to a failed venture or bad business plan in China; usually we only hear about them when the courts get involved. So until I see solid empirical and documentary evidence to the contrary, and significant political and legal changes within the PRC, I am going to continue believing that Western companies will have problems making a profit in China on a consistent, long-term basis.

Published in the South China Morning Post

I hinted at this last week, but I wanted to bra... er, blog ... that I have been published in the South China Morning Post. I've had my byline in newspapers and magazines before, but not the SCMP, which I consider to be the best locally produced English-language daily in East Asia.

The commentary is titled "Stemming an inevitable tide," and appears on page 15 -- I think. I actually can't tell, because I live on the other side of the planet and the SCMP website is subscription-based. I have, however, been able to see it in Factiva (accessed through Harvard), which included the number "15" after the headline.

I'll try to get a copy of the newspaper at Out-of-Town Newspapers in Harvard Square, but chances are I'll never see the print original. I can't reproduce it on this site, owing to publishing and copyright restrictions.

I wanted to note here that the nucleus of the commentary appeared on this blog several months ago, in the blog entry entitled "Another reason China should fear the 'Net: A million people with camera phones." After posting it, I thought, this could get a wider audience, and worked to refine it into something publishable. Several paragraphs were removed or condensed, and most of the introduction was seriously reworked.

At first I offered it to U.S. and Canadian papers, thinking that the planned visit of Hu Jintao, and the recent hubbub over Chinese Intenet policy might make it attractive to Op-Ed editors. No go. The NYT, Boston Globe, Seattle Times, San Jose Mercury Times, and Vancouver Sun all turned it down. Well, actually, only the Seattle Times turned it down, while the others never replied, which is the same as rejection ("If you don't hear from us in a week, assume that we are not interested").

Then I sent it to the SCMP. They accepted it within 10 minutes (conditional that it wouldn't be published on or offered to any competing papers or the International Herald Tribune). They did make some edits, but not many. And I was paid a freelance fee that works out to about $200.

I'll keep an eye out for more publishing opportunities. Academic journals are my hope, but newspapers are great forums for ideas, too.

As are blogs.

HESA wants our feedback ...

I've told my contact on the HESA board about the discussion on Harvard Extended about a need for online community. He is interested in our opinions:

What exactly do people want from the website? A place to discuss ideas? Like a threaded discussion board?

So, what do we want? I already have a short list of requests, some of which are very general (a place to connect) and some very specific (a place to discuss certain faculty). Some other ideas:

* Share information about classes
* Share information about research and resources
* A place to meet others and share war stories
* program-specific boards

These types of needs could obviously be met by a threaded discussion board, but the HESA officers will also have to take into consideration cost (for the software and development time), moderation resources (someone has to moderate the posts and user group), and policies (can anyone see the discussion group, or just students?)

There are other tricky issues that come into play, as well ... how do you handle inappropriate posts, abuse, or defamation? How will the Extension School react to negative posts about certain professors? And would a threaded discussion board cancel the need for a listserv?

Aside from a discussion board, what other types of online resources would be useful? I think the Harvard Extension School website is already very informative, and many other Harvard departments have great online resources. But is there some other online features that would be useful for DCE students in particular?

Send along your ideas, and I will forward them along to HESA ...

HESA's online plans?

Here's something I just noticed on the HESA (Harvard Extension Students Association) news page:

Fri 3 June 05

HESA Listservs and Bulletin Boards

To make our Web site more interactive for our users, we will soon provide interactive bulletin boards where Extension students and Harvard community can better find out about news and activities related to their interests.

I'll follow up with someone I know on the board for a timetable.

Also, the September issue of the Extension School newsletter, the Night Owl, is online, you can download it here.

Harvard Extension School Online Community, part II

There've been some good comments on last week's post about online community. Richard noted that he was kind of surprised that nothing has been set up already.

I would be surprised if the Extension School or HESA hadn't thought of starting a discussion board or e-newsletter at least five years ago. I imagine such discussions have taken place, but I suspect time, money, and other issues have gotten in the way. For instance, HESA has a rotating core of officers, and a major online initiative might take longer than a year to get off the ground, at which point the original project owners are already gone or graduated, and the new crop doesn't follow through. HESA may also be thinking that the print newsletter (The Night Owl) and the electronic version (in PDF format) are enough.

The Extension School itself may have their own set of reservations about online projects beyond the existing website. I'll talk more about this later ...

ALM biology concentrator comments & building a Web community

Linda Barlow, another ALM candidate, has left a comment concerning the quality of the Harvard Extension School, after reading about the positive review of the Extension School from a Harvard alum. It's very interesting to me, as it's coming from a science concentrator. Not only do I seldom hear from or run into ALM science concentrators, they also have a different perspective on the Extension School, because of their career paths (many go into medicine or biotech) and different faculty base (many professors are from the Harvard Medical School). Here's what Linda had to say:

I've have nothing but praise for Harvard Extension since I took a German course there for fun several years ago. I was a lazy student during my college years, so I decided to try to redeem myself by actually learning the language now. I found the classes challenging, the instructor inspirational, and after a couple of years of hard work, I was delighted with my progress.

I'm not entirely sure how this led to my current pursuit -- a master's in biology -- but I can report that the ALM program in biology (or biotechnology, which is also offered) is extremely rigorous. The extension school also offers a pre-med program for students who wish to apply to medical school (but did not complete their pre-reqs in college). Many of these students turn up in the various biology classes, presumably to impress medical school admissions boards with their work in physiology, comparative anatomy, biochemistry, immunology, pathophysiology, etc. Many of these courses, which are all offered by the Extension school, are taught by Harvard med school profs. The result is that all biology classes are extremely competitive. Fortunately I enjoy competition, and it's rather fun to attend classes with a bunch of intense and earnest future physicians who are half my age!

Delighted to find your blog (which Curt directed me to). After taking 7 courses in my field, I'm about to begin focusing on my thesis. So far I haven't found many opportunities to connect with other grad students in the Extension School.

That last sentence got me to thinking ... Is the Web the logical place for the Extension School student body to bond? We're such a diverse group in terms of age, backgrounds, and interests, and also very spread out -- many of us are pursuing degrees from other states or countries!

I hope this blog can serve as a forum of sorts for the scattered Harvard Extension School student body, but what would be really great would be some sort of online discussion forum, either run by the Harvard Extension Student Association or the Extension School itself. There really is a need for such a service, as many of us don't live anywhere near Cambridge, or have other family and career duties that keep us from hanging out on campus.

Thoughts, anyone?

29th Anniversary of Mao's death

Today is the 29th anniversary of Mao Zedong's death. The Guardian website has printed the obituary the Guardian newspaper ran on Sept. 10, 1976, by John Gittings. Interesting that while Deng Xiaoping is mentioned near the top of the story, he was not named as one of the potential successors -- Deng's star was still two more years away from rising to the top.

Here's the link to the archived story. (Warning: Irritating Wade-Giles used throughout)

Publishing!

For the past month, I've been shopping around an essay about China and the Internet to a bunch of daily newspapers, with no luck. But yesterday, someone bit, and it looks like the essay will publish next week.

After that happens, I'll give more details about the topic and the difficulties I experienced shopping it around. The essay relates to something I initially wrote about in this blog, and a few readers may be interested in how I shaped a rough idea in a blog into a more coherent and polished (and publishable) essay.

Of course, when people talk about "publishing" in academics, it almost always relates to journals, but in this case I felt a newspaper was a better forum. Academic journals will come later, especially once my thesis gets underway.

Positive Extension School comment from Harvard alum

I just posted about the Harvard Extension School's response to Katrina. I wanted to add that I found out about this generous offer through Curt Monash's blog on Computerworld. Curt, who is a Harvard alum (PhD in Mathematics [Game Theory]) had some nice words to say about the Extension School offerings, and not just because of the disaster response:

The Harvard Extension School is not to be sneezed at. Many of its courses are more demanding than (or exactly the same as) regular Harvard courses. The average quality of teaching may be better than that at regular Harvard (although this is an admittedly low standard). Home-schooled teenagers take advanced biochemistry lab courses alongside 50-something career-changers. The distance courses generally work as distance courses.

Harvard and the Extension School respond to Katrina

Harvard has responded to the disaster in the South in a number of ways. The Harvard Extension School has really stepped up the plate, I am proud to say. This is from the Extension School website:

The Harvard Extension School is pleased to join with Harvard University in extending learning opportunities to students affected by the Hurricane Katrina devastation in the Gulf Coast region. We will waive the tuition for up to four courses in the fall 2005 term for eligible students. Eligible students include people who would normally be attending college or graduate school in the flooded areas of the Gulf Coast. Students may enroll in on-campus or online courses. Scholarships for online courses are limited, so students are encouraged to apply as soon as possible.

Eligible students also include high school students from the Gulf Coast who come to the Boston area to attend local schools for the term and who want to enroll in up to two on-campus courses that meet AP requirements.

More details are here.

Biking to Harvard

If you live in the Boston area, and attend classes at Harvard, you should really consider commuting by bike. I have done this for the better part of three years during the warmer and lighter months, and even have a website dedicated to commuting by bike called bike worker (bikeworker.com).

That being said, I only recommend biking to work for people who don't have any pre-existing health conditions, have a safe route, and can get home before it gets dark. Check out the bike worker site for a complete list of biking tips and other advice.

Katrina, the TV news, and parallels with China

I've got a couple of things to say about Katrina. I have been watching this with a lot of concern, and have been especially concerned for those people in New Orleans who are too old, sick, or otherwise incapacitated. We have two young kids, a toddler and an infant, and I can't imagine being in a hospital maternity ward with no electricity, or attempting to evacuate my family from a flooded urban area without help. These are the types of situations that a lot of people are being forced into.

But the network television news programs don't show too much of that. Images of looters and desperate people at the Superdome are much sexier. CBS Early Show anchor Harry Smith even remarked about the "Great Video" coming out of New Orleans, when he started his broadcast this morning at 7:30 am EST. The footage he was referring to was a bunch of people on the roof of a high-rise building in the flood, waving desperately at the helicopter as it circled, obviously hoping it would land or drop supplies. "Great Video"? The nerve! Obviously, there is a segment of the broadcast news press corps who are more obsessed with showing "great" TV imagery than showing compassion for the people victimized by this disaster.

I have a feeling most people in Asia don't really care too much about this. It's like Americans reacting to a flood in Hunan, or an earthquake in Iran. It's happening somewhere else on the other side of the world, to people we don't know, so why should we care? I have experienced this before. I had just arrived in Taiwan from Boston on Sept. 11, 2001 when the planes hit the Twin Towers. In the days that followed, I encountered a few people that expressed sympathy, but no one who could appreciate the depression or anguish that I and many other Americans felt.

But seeing images of people evacuating New Orleans, I wonder if some of the older people in China and Taiwan aren't reminded of similar evacuations in the 20s, 30s and 40s, as cities emptied in advance of approaching armies. There is something universal about the situation of refugees, even if the causes of their plights are the result of any number of man-made or natural disasters.